End of business as usual?

June 18th, 2009

I learned a lot from working on my article for the Project Management Institute’s PM Network magazine.

And one of the things to which I’ve especially been giving a lot of thought is this comment from the piece:

“More and more of the world’s GDP is being produced in the form of projects … The balance between business-as-usual and projects is inexorably shifting toward projects, with the result that demand for project managers is exceeding supply by a very large margin, and it is a trend that I think is going to be continuing. … I think project management may be the fastest growing profession that the world has ever seen.”
–  Terence Cooke-Davies, Ph.D., executive chairman of Human Systems International Ltd., a consulting firm in London, England.

This strikes me as an important and very useful observation.

Subtle embedding of high-danger risks

April 4th, 2009

The 2008 crisis certainly revealed the risk-management shortcomings in the financial services sector.

However, the problems in financial services are simply the most visible evidence of ways in which high-danger risks have come to pervade the business arena and now are subtly embedded in all sorts of business processes.

Consider, for example, the way in which the design of today’s performance-based compensation packages, not just in banking but in almost every sector, underestimate risk factors connected to business decisions, a development which gives employees and managers greater incentives to take risks.

… that generate severe adverse consequences with small probability but, in return, offer generous compensation the rest of the time.

… managers collect premiums in ordinary times for what could be called disaster insurance” … Until the disaster strikes, “they can pocket those premiums.”

There’s more discussion of this in the second installment of my three-part Special Report on Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) for Risk & Insurance Magazine.

This includes important points that are made

Here are links to my articles:

Learning From ERM’s Year of Living Dangerously

http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=183204535

Enterprise Risk Management Derailed?
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=183214881

Ratings Analysts Speak on ERM

http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=183214679

Rewards and risks confront risk expert careers

April 2nd, 2009

A great example of the double-edge nature of risk and reward is provided by the situation that is confronting risk managers.

“ERM [Enterprise Risk Management] provides an absolutely unbelievable opportunity [for career advancement] for a risk manager” according to an executive recruiter who specializes in risk professionals — but who also warns that, on the other hand,  “I’ve seen situations where … eventually the risk manager ends up losing his or her job.”

There’s more discussion of this and related issues in the third installment of my three-part Special Report on Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) for Risk & Insurance Magazine.

Here are links to articles and sidebars in that installment.

The Double-Edged Gift of ERM

http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=192585755

Raising the Risk Executive’s Profile

http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=193285691

Risk Management 2.0 connects with new priorities

January 26th, 2009

Risk management is soaring as a corporate priority.

To pick just one indication, a recent survey of corporate board members found that

70 percent of audit committee members and more than 65 percent of the CFOs ranked ERM [Enterprise Risk Management] as the No. 1 challenge for their organizations over the next 12 months, overshadowing worries about improving financial reporting and internal controls.

The why’s, what’s and how’s behind this rising priority is explored in the first installment of my three-part Special Report on Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) for Risk & Insurance Magazine.

Here are links to articles and sidebars the that first installment.

Reflections on ERM Inflections
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=165417938

ERM’s Major Challenges
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=166276165

ERM Makes a Case for Itself at Cisco
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=166275949

And here are links to a few  earlier pieces that I’ve written about ERM.

Ratings’ Enterprise Five
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=126851990

ERM Program at Risk School Takes Flight
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=86187320&query

Under-the-Radar Changes in Curricula
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=86186105

State School Reinvents Risk Management Program
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/story.jsp?storyId=86186457

More on Risky Business

September 12th, 2008

Here are my latest articles for Risk & Insurance magazine in my on-going coverage of emerging trends in the ways in which businesses are dealing with risk.

Ratings’ Enterprise Five
S&P’s Hands-On Practitioner

These pieces provide profiles of the executives at the Standard & Poor’s, AM Best and Fitch credit ratings firms who are leading the agencies’ ramped-up initiatives to evaluate companies’ risk management programs … and to more significantly use those evaluations as criteria in their ratings of the creditworthiness of those companies.

Stay tune for the major, three-installment Enterprise Risk Management Special Report on which I am working and which will be appearing in early 2009.

Risk and innovation - complex and important connections

April 15th, 2008

Recently, I’ve been focusing on a set of increasingly important, powerful, complex and intriguing connections between risk and innovation.

Part of my work has involved articles for Risk and Insurance Magazine, and an initial result of that work is a set of pieces that have appeared in the April 15 issue of the magazine.

This editorial package looks at major changes that are taking place in leading academic programs that focus on Risk Management.

My articles for the April 15 issue now are available online on the Risk and Insurance website.

You can find them at:

Risk Education In-Depth Series (Part 1): Reprogramming an Enterprise

State School Reinvents Risk Management Program

ERM Program at Risk School Takes Flight

Under-the-Radar Changes in Curricula

Impact Extends Beyond the Classroom … to the Library

Press Coverage of the GPS Initiative

January 14th, 2008

We’ve gotten quite a bit of press pickup for the latest installment in the on-going project about GPS trends on which I am working with Owen Shapiro of the Leo J. Shapiro & Associates research firm.

In particular, our GPS Edges Out Internet for Cellphones item that presented new findings from a follow-up survey about GPS was picked up and covered by dozens of publications and news organizations.

We released the information in a brief item on the PRNewswire, and here is a page with links to coverage that was listed in Google News.

Interestingly, there also were a number of significant outlets that picked up the GPS item, but that did not come up in the Google News search service listings. These include:

and others.

In addition, you can find more info about the GPS initiative in my earlier posting at

GPS Transformation - “High-Tech Rosetta Stone” re-shapes topography

Cities 2.0 - A New Generation Re-Invents America’s Urban Centers

November 13th, 2007

My latest piece is the first in a planned series of articles in which I will explore the “Cities 2.0″ transformations that are re-shaping the fabric and topography of America’s urban centers.

This initial article, which was published in the Chicago Sun Times, focuses on the impact of today’s “Generation 2.0″ cohort of 25-to-34-year-olds and particularly points to

  • Ways in which today’s “re-invented” Gen 2.0 demographic definitely is not your father’s 25-to-34-year-olds.
  • How a convergence of powerful forces has spurred Gen 2.0 to concentrate in central cities at unprecedented levels, and
  • The impact that this generation is having on Chicago and other U.S. cities.

In fact, these changes in our urban centers connect very directly and in important ways to the changes in the U.S. economy that are placing a higher priority on innovation…and to recurring themes addressed by this blog.

Here’s a link to a JPG version of CHICAGO 2.0: A new generation reinvents Chicago as it appeared in the Sun Times on page 2 of the Sunday Op-Ed section a couple of days ago (Nov. 11). I’m including the JPG because the editor of the section, Tom McNamee, created terrific graphics to go with the piece and gave it a generous amount of real estate — full size, the package of article and graphics was just over 11″x17.”

For at least the next few days, you also can find an online version of the piece (with the complete text, but without the accompanying charts and great graphics) at
CHICAGO 2.0: A new generation reinvents Chicago

In addition, here are links to two of my previous pieces that address related issues and that provide somewhat different perspectives on these topics.

  • “A Few Minutes With…Richard Florida,” a Q&A interview about the “Creative Class” that I did with economist Richard Florida that appeared last year in REALTOR Magazine, the monthly magazine of the National Association Realtors.
  • My “Gold-Collar Workers” Op-Ed piece that I wrote about “human capital trends” for Crain’s Chicago Business almost 20 years ago (June 1989). To be sure, there are parts of the piece that I would change if I were writing it today, but I am willing to argue that its notions about “gold-collar workers” and the “NBA-ization” of the economy still have significant relevance to today’s challenges and opportunities.

GPS Transformation - “High-Tech Rosetta Stone” re-shapes topography

November 6th, 2007

Owen Shapiro and I just wrote an article and an Early Signals Briefing about the striking developments connected to the new generation of GPS tools and services that are exploding into the consumer marketplace.

Here are a few of the topline findings (which are based on data from phone interviews conducted by Owen’s research firm in early October 2007 of a national sample of 450 Americans):

  • Web-based mapping services have achieved striking penetration into the everyday lives of Americans and have eclipsed traditional paper maps as mainstream sources of information about the world. A strong majority (60%) report that they had used a geographic website (e.g., MapQuest, Google Maps) – in the weeks preceding the interview, twice the percentage that report using traditional on-paper maps..
  • New GPS-enabled personal navigation devices (PNDs) are leapfrogging past early-adopter growth and are surging almost directly into widespread, mainstream usage. Nearly everyone surveyed (94%) said that they have heard of GPS; almost one-third (32%) reported having used a GPS-enabled unit, including one in six (17%) who reported such use in the past month.
  • Look for pitched battles among incumbent (and newcomer) brands as they race for dominance in this burgeoning market as the GPS-enabled PND and consumer mapping marketplace roaring into a period of explosive growth.
  • GPS consumer-market turmoil is likely to gain energy as it continues to tap the “high-tech Rosetta Stone” qualities of GPS-enabled services, and the tumult could have significant spill-over effects on more technical, geographic information system (GIS) applications.

Here are a thumbnails of charts that illustrate a few of our findings (click on the thumbnail to see the full-sized graphic):

There’s lots more discussion and material in our article and in our “Early Signals Briefing on GIS/GPS.”

Here’s a link to the article, which was published on the Directions Magazine website on November 2.

Consumer Awareness Driving GPS-enabled Device Adoption

The Directions Magazine article was based on our “Early Signals Briefing on GIS/GPS,” which has numerous charts and more extended discussion that was not included in the Directions Magazine article.

You can get a copy of a PDF version of the Early Signals Briefing by sending an e-mail to gps@ljs.com.

Finally, I’m also putting together a more extensive “Emerging Trends Report on GIS/GPS” that will significantly expand on the “Early Signals Briefing.”

You can get a copy of the Emerging Trends Report when it is completed by sending an e-mail to that same address - gps@ljs.com.

If you outsource your out-of-the-box thinking…

July 23rd, 2007

…are you in danger that your thinking will get boxed in?

Or, to put it a bit differently, consider the old saying:

  • “A man who chops his own wood is warmed twice.”

In part, these issues come to mind because of the recent attention that has been showered on the justifiably-heralded new Boeing 787 Dreamliner, which embraced a paradigm-busting approach that included the outsourcing of many aspects of the design and R&D of the new plane.

More specifically, Boeing officials estimate that the new process cut “one-third to one-half of the time out, and perhaps 50 percent out of development cost versus historical methods.” A key part of their strategy involved having Boeing subcontractors around the world take responsibility for the development and design of many components that, in the past, would have been handled by Boeing internally.

And, more generally, there has been a flurry of recent reports that underscore that Boeing is not alone in outsourcing and offshoring its R&D. For example,

  • Global executives surveyed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicted that their firms would markedly increase the proportion of R&D that will be carried out by external partners and overseas. Already, 65% of the 300 surveyed reported that their organizations already were performing at least some of their R&D offshore…and 84% were expecting that they would be by 2010, according to findings which are presented in the EIU’s “Sharing the Idea – The Emergence of Global Innovation Networks” report.
  • A report on “Next Generation Offshoring -The Globalization of Innovation” from the Fuqua School of Business at Duke and the Booz Allen Hamilton consulting firm found that, from 2005 to 2006, offshoring of product-development projects increased by close to 50 percent from an already significant base, and, over the next eighteen to thirty-six months, growth in offshoring of product-development projects is forecast to increase by 65 percent for R&D and by more than 80 percent for engineering services and product-design projects.
  • The “Outsourcing of R&D Becomes More Strategic” cover story in the June issue of R&D Magazine presented data from its own readership surveys that further documented the continuing growth in the outsourcing of R&D, as well as providing an excellent discussion of findings of the Booz-Fuqua and EIU reports.

In combination, these reports provide valuable insights into the compelling factors that are driving the growth in the outsourcing and offshoring of R&D…and they give us glimpses into the new management challenges that these trends are triggering.

And, some of the most important of these new challenges stem from the distinctively innovative nature of R&D that makes the management of the outsourcing of R&D much more complex and challenging than the management of the outsourcing of more prosaic functions like payroll, or finance, or accounting, or procurement.

There is an unpredictability that is inherent to R&D, and there also are subtle, not-always-explicit benefits that accrue from R&D that often are hard to quantify…and that can be hard to “manage.”

Which brings to mind a comment made many years ago by the members of the team that were managing the renowned Fermilab research laboratory just outside of Chicago.

In the course of a long and fascinating conversation about reasons behind Fermilab’s success as a research center, they told me how its founder and its first director, Robert R. Wilson, also had played a central role in the design of the facility…and that he particularly had made sure that a number of features were built into the building that would facilitate serendipitous interaction among the large team of researchers who would be using the facility.

For example, Wilson insisted on an “open design” for the first floor of the building that made it possible for a person waiting at the main elevators to be able to see anyone else on the first floor…and vice versa.

The idea was that this improved visibility would boost the opportunities for the sharing and cross-fertilization of ideas among the scientists.

And it is precisely these types of small, subtle aspects of the R&D process that seem likely to play key roles in helping an organization to be “warmed twice” from its investments in innovation efforts.

Already, you can see an array of sophisticated online tools and strategies that address the “subtle” R&D challenges that have begun to emerge…and it seems likely that an organization’s ability to “manage” these challenges effectively will be a critical factor for producing the unexpected sparks that often ignite the “hot” new ideas and products needed to succeed in today’s hyper-competitive business arena.

For those who are interested, here is a link to an excellent article in CIO Insight, Boeing: New Jet, New Way of Doing Business by Edward Cone, which provides a detailed, in-depth discussion of Boeing’s new approach to R&D, with a special emphasis on the underlying computer systems that played a crucial role.